Cantor Fitzgerald's Pablo Zuanic took a close look at the scenarios and permutations of the Cresco/Columbia Care deal. Cresco announced it was acquiring its rival Columbia Care for $2.1 billion in March 2022. Once the deal is finalized, Cresco Labs will become the largest cannabis company in the U.S. According to the analyst, the deal closing represents an upside for both Cresco (OTC: CRLBF) and Columbia Care (OTC: CCHWF).
The deal will grant Cresco a strategic footprint comprising 120 retail stores across 18 markets, vertical integration in 16 states, reaching up to 55% of the U.S. population, and bringing Cresco to a leadership position in seven of the top 10 markets by revenue in 2025, according to BDSA.
“If the Cresco-Columbia Care deal were to close today, CCHWF shares would have a 35% upside based on the exchange ratio (0.5579),” Zuanic said. Although the closing of the deal was delayed yet again, he sees a minimal probability of either company walking away, given the strategic benefits for Cresco. Zuanic noted that in a consolidating industry, it's doubtful that Columbia would prefer to remain independent.
“The issue is more about Cresco finding buyers for the …